There is a particular tension that arises when the data and the voters disagree—when the numbers on a spreadsheet tell one story and the people living with those numbers tell another. In the closing weeks before the midterm elections, that tension has become a defining feature of the national economic debate. On Sunday, Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, appeared on CNN's "State of the Union" and dismissed polls showing widespread dissatisfaction with the economy, calling them "possibly partisan" and saying plainly, "I just don't buy it" .
Hassett's argument rests on a distinction between what he calls "hard data" and public sentiment. He pointed to GDP growth—2.2 percent in the second quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis—and to consumer spending as evidence that the economy is fundamentally sound. "If it were true, if the polls were any value for thinking about what's going on with consumers, then we should look at the consumption data and say, 'Geez, yeah, that's right. People aren't spending,'" he told Jake Tapper. "But, in fact, the retailers are doing well" .
The polls Hassett is dismissing are not marginal. A recent Quinnipiac University poll found that 62 percent of respondents disapproved of President Trump's handling of the economy. An Associated Press/NORC poll found that 65 percent of respondents believed the president's policies are behind high prices. And a CBS News Battleground Tracker poll found that voters consistently cite prices—groceries, gas, healthcare—as their primary economic concern, with most feeling that the administration has not focused enough on lowering costs .
The data itself is more complex than either side of the argument suggests. While GDP growth has been positive, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the economy added only 29,000 jobs in September—60,000 fewer than expected—and revised down the July and August jobs reports by a combined 60,000 jobs. Mortgage rates have risen to seven percent, despite Trump's campaign promise to bring them down to three percent. Gas prices have spiked due to the war in Iran, which has proven expensive and increased oil and gas prices .
Rural voters, a key constituency for Republicans, are particularly dissatisfied. An AP-KFF poll found that about half of rural American voters believe the economy is worse off now than when Trump returned to office. About three-quarters rated the cost of living in their communities as "only fair" or "poor"—a 25 percentage point rise from a similar question asked in 2017. Tim Slack, a sociology professor at Louisiana State University, noted that "many folks are connecting the cost-of-living crisis to many of the Trump administration's policy choices: the war in Iran, tariffs, trade wars. None of those things are going to bring down prices at the pump or the local Walmart" .
Hassett's dismissal of the polling data reflects a broader strategy as the midterms approach: to frame negative sentiment as a partisan artifact rather than a reflection of lived experience. Whether that argument persuades voters—or whether their own experience at the grocery store and gas station carries more weight—will be determined on November 3.
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Sources: The Hill, CNN, Barron's, AP News, CBS News, The Independent
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