Trump Approval Falls to Career Low Ahead of Midterms

There is a particular kind of political arithmetic that becomes impossible to ignore when the numbers turn against a president—an arithmetic measured not in a single poll but in the accumulation of surveys, each one confirming what the last one suggested, until the trend becomes the story. In the final weeks before the midterm elections, that story has arrived for President Donald Trump. A new AP-NORC poll released Thursday found his approval rating at 31 percent—the lowest level recorded across either of his two terms, and a two-point drop from the previous survey . Major polling averages place him at 37 percent approval and 61 percent disapproval .

The numbers behind the headline are stark. Only 26 percent of Americans approve of his handling of the economy—a figure lower than former President Joe Biden's approval on the economy (28 percent) at the height of record inflation in June 2022 . Just 17 percent approve of his handling of the cost of living, and that frustration has reached his own base: about six in ten Republicans now disapprove of how Trump is handling costs, up from about half in April . A majority of Americans—65 percent—blame Trump's policies for persistently high prices more than factors outside his control .

The context for these numbers is an economy that has not delivered the relief voters were promised. The war in Iran has driven up oil and gas prices. Tariffs have increased costs for farmers and consumers. Mortgage rates remain elevated. And the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates high to combat inflation, adding pressure to household budgets . In a Wall Street Journal poll, Trump's 37 percent approval rating was the lowest for an incumbent president heading into midterms since the outlet began polling in 1990—lower even than George W. Bush's 39 percent in 2006, a year Democrats gained 31 House seats .

The political implications are significant. Zachary Donnini, head of data science at VoteHub, told USA Today that "there's no floor for Republicans right now" and estimated a "20 or 25% chance the midterm outcome is devastating for Republicans because Trump is super unpopular and Republican voters seem to be not super enthused to come out" . Democrats are increasingly confident, though Donnini noted one caveat: Republicans have become harder for pollsters to reach, which could mean Democratic candidates perform worse than surveys suggest .

For the White House, the polls represent a challenge that no amount of messaging can easily reverse. The economy is the dominant issue for voters, and the president's ratings on it are historically low. The midterms will determine whether those numbers translate into electoral consequences—or whether, as some Republicans hope, the polls are missing a silent majority that will show up on Election Day. The surveys will continue. The votes will decide.

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Sources: AP News, USA Today, The Detroit News