The Republicans Are Spending in Kansas, and That Says Everything

There is a particular irony in the political geography of 2026—a year in which Republicans entered the midterm cycle believing they would be playing offense, targeting Democratic-held seats in states like Georgia and Michigan, and instead find themselves pouring money into a state that Donald Trump won by sixteen points. Kansas, a place that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932, has become the unlikely center of the fight for Senate control. And the reason is not a national wave or a coordinated strategy, but a pastor.

Adam Hamilton is sixty-two years old, a fifth-generation Kansan, and the founder of the United Methodist Church of the Resurrection, the largest Methodist congregation in the United States, with more than 23,000 members and nine locations. He is also the Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate, a first-time candidate who switched his party affiliation from Republican to Democrat in April, when he declared his candidacy. He is running against Senator Roger Marshall, a Republican seeking his second term, and recent polls show the race is a statistical tie.

The numbers tell a story of vulnerability. Trump’s approval rating in Kansas has fallen to around 40 percent. Diesel prices, driven up by the war with Iran, have risen 79 percent compared to a year ago, hitting farmers and ranchers—two of the most reliable Republican voting blocs in the state—with losses of up to $600 per head. Trump’s decision to suspend tariffs on Argentine beef to bring down prices has further angered ranchers. And Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids in western Kansas have disrupted agricultural workforces, prompting Marshall himself to distance himself from the administration’s approach.

The Republican response has been swift and significant. The Senate Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with top Senate Republicans, is pulling back from North Carolina—a purple state where former Governor Roy Cooper is favored over Trump’s preferred candidate—and pouring millions into Kansas. The group has reserved nearly $8.2 million in advertising to support Marshall, while Hamilton has reserved just $590,000. Marshall won his first Senate race by more than 11 points in 2020. Now, the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball have both moved the race from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican”.

Hamilton’s strategy is built on distance from the national party. He has said “please, no” to the possibility of Kamala Harris campaigning for him, telling Politico, “I mean no disrespect for her. I just think she is not somebody who would win votes here in Kansas.” He recounted telling Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer directly that he would be a liability in the state. “You’re not a help,” Hamilton said he told him. He has pledged not to support Schumer as leader, arguing it is time for new blood.

Whether Hamilton can overcome nearly a century of Kansas history remains to be seen. But the fact that the question is being asked at all is itself remarkable. Former Republican Governor Bill Graves has endorsed Hamilton. Former Democratic Governor Kathleen Sebelius, who won statewide four times, said, “We believe in miracles in Kansas, so Adam is the perfect guy to break this Senate curse.” The election is November 3. The Senate majority may depend on what Kansas decides.

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Sources: CNN, CBS News, The Hill, Associated Press, New York Times/Siena, Seattle Times, Hutchinson News