IEA: Russian Oil Output to Decline ~3% to 8.9 Million bpd in 2026 as Ukraine Strikes Energy Infrastructure

The International Energy Agency (IEA) says Russia’s oil output will fall in 2026 due to intensified Ukrainian drone attacks targeting Russian energy infrastructure.

In its updated monthly outlook, the IEA cut its forecast for Russian supply. It projects Russian oil production to average about 8.9 million barrels per day this year, reflecting the impact of strikes on refineries, storage facilities and transport infrastructure. The IEA also downgraded its outlook for the following year, citing continued disruptions.

The IEA estimated that continued attacks are undermining Russia’s ability to sustain production at previously expected levels, prompting the revised supply trajectory.