US-Iran War: Day 31 of a Conflict Stuck Between Intense Strikes and Contradictory Diplomatic Signals

Ongoing Strikes and Iranian Retaliation On this Monday, a combined attack of Iranian missiles and rockets, along with Hezbollah involvement, struck northern Israel, particularly the Haifa refinery. Several impacts were reported, causing fires and triggering alerts in the port area. Israel, for its part, continues its deep airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, with a focus on missile production sites around Tehran and other strategic facilities. U.S. and Israeli forces claim to have hit over 10,000 targets since the start of hostilities, significantly degrading Iran’s military capabilities, especially its ballistic missile production and nuclear-related sites. In retaliation, Iran has stepped up drone and missile attacks against American bases and interests in the Gulf, with support from the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Massive U.S. Military Buildup The United States continues a major reinforcement of its presence in the region. Nearly 50,000 American troops are now deployed in the Middle East, including several thousand who arrived in recent days (Marines, airborne units from the 82nd Airborne Division, etc.). This large-scale deployment is raising concerns about a possible limited ground operation, although Washington has not confirmed any such intention. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was clear: “We must destroy Iran’s ability to launch missiles” to stabilize the region. American sources have mentioned potential raids to secure nuclear sites or key infrastructure. Trump Talks About “Regime Change” and Negotiations In statements made aboard Air Force One, President Trump claimed that a “regime change” has already taken place in Iran due to the many leaders eliminated since the conflict began. He says the U.S. is negotiating with a “new, more reasonable regime” and speaks of “progress” in the discussions, mentioning intermediaries involving Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. However, Trump has also multiplied threats: destruction of power plants, oil wells, and even the possibility of seizing Kharg Island, which handles nearly 90% of Iran’s oil exports. “My preference would be to take the oil rather than other options,” he declared. Tehran Denies Any Negotiations On the Iranian side, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and official spokespersons firmly deny any direct negotiations with the United States. “No discussions have taken place and we have no intention of starting any,” they repeated. Iran rejects the American proposals, describing them as “maximalist,” and maintains that it will respond to any new escalation. Diplomacy is mainly conducted through intermediaries (Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia), but the positions remain very far apart. Iran demands, among other things, an end to assassinations, reparations, and guarantees against future attacks. Risks of Escalation and Regional Impact The Strait of Hormuz remains a highly sensitive area, with persistent fears of disruption to maritime traffic and a surge in oil prices. Israel is also expanding its operations in Lebanon to create a deeper buffer zone against Hezbollah. Military analysts warn of the risk of a broader war involving multiple fronts. For now, neither Washington nor Tehran appears ready for a quick compromise, even though Trump regularly mentions the possibility of an agreement “soon.” In summary, the US-Iran-Israel conflict has entered a phase of maximum pressure: daily strikes, massive reinforcements, and an ambiguous diplomatic game where optimistic statements coexist with the harshest threats. The evolution of the coming days will be decisive: between the risk of limited ground operations and the possibility of de-escalation through regional mediation.