The Sky Is Not Supposed to Matter, and Yet It Does

There is an old superstition in American politics that rain favors one party or another, that a wet sky keeps one kind of voter home and sends another to the polls. The research has never quite borne that out, and the country has changed in ways that make the old weather wisdom even less reliable—early voting, mail ballots, the slow migration of Election Day from a single Tuesday to a season. And yet, when the forecast turns sour on the day itself, the question still lingers in the air like humidity.

A storm system is expected to move through the central United States on Monday and Tuesday, bringing severe weather to parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri just as voters head to the polls for the midterm elections . The National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center warned of hurricane-strength winds, the risk of tornadoes, hail, and heavy rainfall, with North Texas and Oklahoma potentially seeing straight-line winds in excess of 75 mph . Evan Bentley, the center's warning coordination meteorologist, said the region has "plenty of energy available to support severe weather" and noted the concern about power outages from winds of that magnitude .

By Tuesday, the worst of the severe threat is expected to give way to scattered showers and gusty winds across much of the central U.S., with rain likely in Minneapolis, Chicago, and Kansas City . In Kansas, showers and possible strong winds are forecast as voters decide a closely watched Senate race between incumbent Roger Marshall and Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton . In Texas, where Attorney General Ken Paxton faces Democrat James Talarico in another competitive Senate contest, clearing skies are expected in the north and central parts of the state, while showers and thunderstorms are likely in the Houston area and the Ark-La-Tex region .

The practical effect on turnout is uncertain and likely modest. Experts note that weather does not tend to have a significant impact on electoral results, particularly as many voters now cast ballots early or by mail . But the share of voters who still go to the polls in person on Election Day varies widely by state. In the 2024 election, only about 20 percent of Texans voted in person on Election Day, compared with roughly 45 percent in Kansas and 60 percent in Minnesota—states where a rainy Tuesday could matter more .

For election officials, the weather adds a layer of contingency to a day already defined by it. Power outages could disrupt polling locations. Flooded roads could keep voters and workers from reaching them. The storm will pass, as storms do, and the votes will be counted, as votes are. But the sky, for once, will be part of the story.

Image Disclaimer: The images in this article were produced using artificial intelligence and are illustrative in nature.

Sources: NBC News, Star-Gazette, National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center