There is a particular kind of quiet that settles over a province in the final weeks before a referendum, when the signs are up but the minds are not yet made. In Alberta, ten questions will greet voters on October 19, and while the tenth—the one about separation—has consumed the discourse, the other nine remain something of a mystery to many. A new poll suggests that nearly half of Albertans still do not know how they will vote on those questions, even as the campaign enters its final stretch. Sometimes the most consequential decisions are the ones we have not yet begun to consider.
The poll, commissioned by CBC News and conducted by Janet Brown Opinion Research between September 8 and September 21, surveyed 1,200 Albertans. It found that 49 percent of respondents were undecided on the nine non-separation questions . Janet Brown, the Calgary-based pollster behind the survey, described the contrast as striking. "There's a huge contrast between opinion toward question 10 and opinion toward the other nine," she said. "A lot is up in the air right now on the other nine questions" .
Five of those nine questions deal with immigration. The poll found that 54 percent of respondents agreed Alberta should take more control over immigration, a figure down three points from April . But the intensity of that support has softened. Those who "strongly agree" dropped from 40 percent to 33 percent, while those who "somewhat agree" increased by four percentage points . Brown described it as a "bare consensus"—agreement that something should be done, but no agreement on what that something is .
The constitutional questions fare differently. A question about limiting temporary residents' access to health care and education drew about 45 percent support, but those who strongly disagreed increased by four percentage points since April . Lisa Young, a political science professor at the University of Calgary, suggested that as Albertans have begun to engage with the questions, support for restrictive policies has softened. "People have come back from summer vacation, they've seen signs saying 'no to the nine,' and they've started wondering what are the nine [questions]," she said .
There is also a broader sentiment at play. Sixty-three percent of respondents agreed that Alberta benefits from immigration from other countries—a strong majority, though down 18 percentage points from 2021, when the question was asked during the "Alberta is Calling" era. Brown attributed the shift to changed circumstances: a trade war, rising housing prices, and a different mood about growth .
With less than a month remaining, Brown noted that people are not yet feeling connected to the nine questions. The separation question has drawn attention, the signs have drawn curiosity, but the substance of what those nine questions would actually do remains, for many, unresolved . The answers will come on October 19, whether or not the voters feel ready to give them.
A new poll finds nearly half of Albertans are undecided on the nine non-separation referendum questions, while 54 percent support taking more control over immigration. Support for restrictive policies has softened, and 63 percent agree immigration benefits the province.
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Sources: CBC News, Janet Brown Opinion Research
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