Kalshi Sees 43% Chance of U.S. Government Shutdown by January 31, 2026

WASHINGTON, D.C. — Kalshi, the prediction market platform, now assigns a 43% probability of a U.S. government shutdown on January 31, 2026, the highest level recorded since the fiscal crisis in 2025.

The elevated probability reflects ongoing concerns about budget negotiations and potential deadlock in Congress. Analysts note that a shutdown at the end of January could disrupt federal services, delay payments to government employees, and create uncertainty for financial markets.

Officials continue discussions on funding measures, emphasizing the need for bipartisan agreement to prevent interruptions to federal operations. Market observers are monitoring the situation closely, citing the sharp increase in perceived risk over recent weeks.