Coalition to Slash Migration to 100,000 in First Year

There is a particular arithmetic to a political party trying to stop the bleeding of its own support—an arithmetic measured not in policy outcomes but in polling percentages, in the gap between what a party believes and what it fears its voters will do. In Australia, the Liberal-National Coalition has watched its support flow toward Pauline Hanson's One Nation for months. On Tuesday, Opposition Leader Angus Taylor will unveil a migration policy that represents his most aggressive attempt yet to stem that flow: a plan to slash net overseas migration to approximately 100,000 in the first year of a Coalition government, roughly a third of the current intake of 292,000 .

The figure is significantly lower than the 170,000 target Taylor had previously flagged, and it reflects the political pressure the Coalition is under. One Nation has surged in the polls, surpassing both the Coalition and Labor in some surveys, and Hanson has set the terms of the immigration debate. One Nation's own policy, announced in September, targets net overseas migration of 130,000 after an initial period of "net negative" migration. The Coalition's 100,000 figure is designed to go further, while remaining, in the party's framing, economically responsible .

The policy's details, as reported by multiple outlets, focus on cracking down on what the Coalition calls "visa hopping"—the practice of temporary migrants, particularly international students, extending their stay by moving between visa categories. Under the plan, students would be required to leave Australia if they wish to apply for another visa, rather than applying onshore. A list of "safe" nations would be established to allow speedier rejections of protection visas. The Coalition argues that the current system is being abused; one example cited is that 230 United Kingdom citizens applied for asylum in the past year .

The Coalition claims its plan would be budget-neutral over the four-year budget period, with a reworked skills program bringing in more sought-after workers to offset lower tax revenue. "This will be the Liberal way: focused on the economy," one party figure told The Sydney Morning Herald. But the policy also nods to the concerns of the Nationals, who have warned that cuts to working holidaymaker numbers would devastate regional industries like fruit picking. The Coalition has committed to prioritizing backpackers on the working holiday visa scheme to ensure a continued seasonal workforce .

The political context is one of escalating competition over immigration. Labor has set its own target of 245,000 for this financial year, falling to 225,000 by 2027-28. Treasurer Jim Chalmers has repeatedly emphasized that migration underpins the budget and labor supply in critical industries. One Nation's September policy was criticized by economists for lacking costings; a warning suggested it could increase Australia's debt by almost $420 billion within a decade. The Coalition is presenting its plan as the responsible alternative—tough on numbers, but grounded in economic modelling .

Taylor's leadership may depend on whether the strategy works. He has told MPs to keep seeking updated advice from the Parliamentary Budget Office to drive migration as low as possible without damaging the economy, according to multiple sources. The final advice, they say, shows the proposal would be budget-neutral. Whether voters see it that way will be determined at the next election. For now, the policy is a clear signal: the Coalition is willing to go further than Labor, and almost as far as One Nation, to win back the voters it has lost. The announcement is expected Tuesday morning, following a special party room meeting .

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Sources: The Age, The Sydney Morning Herald, ABC News, Nine, The Guardian, Daily Mail, News24