Between Votes and Viscosities: A Presidential Pledge to Rebalance Uganda’s Oil Deals

Under the wide skies of Kampala’s campaign trail, where posters, speeches and slogans mingle with everyday rhythms, a different kind of pledge has entered Uganda’s election discourse: one that reaches deep into the bedrock of the country’s emerging oil economy. With the presidential election set for next week, opposition candidate Robert Kyagulanyi — known widely as Bobi Wine — has signalled that a future government under his leadership would review and potentially revise Uganda’s oil agreements with international firms to ensure they favour Ugandans.

Wine’s stance, revealed in a Reuters interview last week, comes at a pivotal moment for Uganda’s energy sector. After more than two decades since oil discoveries in the Albertine Graben, the country is poised to begin commercial crude production later in 2026 when fields operated by France’s TotalEnergies and China’s CNOOC, alongside the Uganda National Oil Company, come online under existing production‑sharing agreements with the government.

“We shall study all agreements,” Wine told reporters in Kampala. “And any part in those agreements that does not favour Ugandans will definitely be revised.” His comments reflect longstanding unease among some Ugandans about whether contracts with multinational oil companies sufficiently protect national interests, particularly in a sector seen as both a potential engine of growth and a magnet for disputes over revenue, transparency and environmental impacts.

Wine, a former pop star who garnered about 35 percent of the vote in the 2021 election, is campaigning against President Yoweri Museveni, who has led Uganda for four decades. His broader criticism extends beyond economic issues to questions of governance and human rights. In the Reuters interview, he also lambasted Western governments for continuing to support Museveni’s government politically and financially despite what he described as crackdowns on his campaign and supporters.

For many Ugandans, the oil transition remains a source of both hope and frustration. The nation’s estimated 6.65 billion barrels of oil reserves offer prospects of job creation, infrastructure spending and new revenue streams. Yet the road to production has been repeatedly delayed in part because of disagreements over terms with international partners and opposition from environmental activists concerned about the ecological footprint of extraction and pipelines such as the controversial East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP).

Wine’s pledge to scrutinise existing contracts underscores the political salience of oil in this election. Critics of Uganda’s oil policy argue that heavy foreign involvement in production‑sharing deals has sometimes yielded terms perceived as favouring investors more than local communities or national interests, a sentiment that often resonates strongly in campaign rhetoric.

However, the incumbent government and its allies argue that foreign investment and expertise are essential to bringing Uganda’s oil sector online and that existing agreements provide a framework for responsible development and revenue generation. Whether Wine’s review promises would be welcomed by investors — or how such a process would be navigated legally and economically — remains a question only time and the election’s outcome will answer.

As Uganda edges closer to its election, the collision of oil, politics and public expectation vividly illustrates how resource wealth can shape not only economic strategy but also the contours of democratic debate. In a nation where the promise of oil long outpaces its reality, the coming weeks may determine whose vision prevails — and how the country’s black gold is governed for generations to come.

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Sources Uganda opposition candidate says he will review oil deals if elected next week — Reuters via TimesLIVE. Bobi Wine to review Uganda oil deals if elected next week — TRT Afrika.