Between Alpine Air and Atlantic Currents, a World Order Holds Its Breath

There are moments in international affairs that feel less like a fresh dawn and more like a long evening’s pause, when uncertainty hangs in the air before an event that could set a new rhythm. In the weeks before a major defence gathering in Munich, that quiet has stretched across capitals from Berlin to Paris, and beyond to Washington, as leaders prepare to convene amid a sense that familiar patterns are no longer quite familiar at all.

In European cities, the late winter light bends low over boulevards and quiet parks, inviting reflection on ties that have endured for decades. These are ties forged in the aftermath of distant wars and reaffirmed in crises that tested confidence in collective security. On the eve of the conference, that history lingers in conversations among diplomats and defence officials alike — a steady undertow beneath the surface of routine coordination.

Yet there is an awareness that the foundations beneath those conversations have shifted. For many, this sense has been shaped by U.S. policy under former President Donald Trump, where both continuity and rupture have reshaped expectations. In recent months, discussions in European capitals have reflected concern that the world order, once anchored in predictability, now faces pressures from transactional approaches to alliances.

Opinions among leaders vary: some emphasize reaffirming collective defence and coordinated responses, while others stress the need to strengthen strategic autonomy, considering how to act together even without assured backing from across the Atlantic. Conversations unfold quietly in ministries, over dinner tables, and in corridors of power, threading together caution, reflection, and adaptation.

These debates are not entirely new. Questions over defence spending and burden-sharing have recurred across decades, yet the tone on this eve feels different, as if the familiar cadence of transatlantic dialogue has loosened. Diplomats and officials prepare briefings and scenarios with care, aware that the conference represents a rare opportunity to reconcile enduring differences while acknowledging changing realities.

As the Munich Security Conference begins, European and North American leaders will gather to address pressing global security challenges, including the war in Ukraine, tensions with Russia, and broader questions of defence cooperation. The influence of U.S. policy under Trump, alongside debates over European strategic autonomy, is expected to feature prominently in discussions and shape the decisions to follow.

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