A Tax on the Wealthiest, and a Question That Remains Undecided

There is a particular tension in asking voters whether the wealthiest among them should pay more—a question that touches on fairness, economics, and the quiet fear that those with the most to contribute might simply leave. In California, that tension has taken the form of Proposition 40, a one-time 5 percent tax on the wealth of billionaires, and it has become one of the most closely watched and divisive measures on the November ballot. A new poll suggests voters are sympathetic to the idea, but not yet convinced it should become law.

The UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, found 45 percent of likely voters support Proposition 40, while 42 percent oppose it, and 13 percent remain undecided . That marks a decline from August, when the same poll found 48 percent support. "With less than 50% support this close to the election, ballot measures for new taxes tend not to pass, as undecided voters likely break towards 'no,'" said G. Cristina Mora, co-director of the IGS poll .

The measure would impose a one-time 5 percent levy on the net worth of Californians with more than $1 billion in assets as of January 1, 2026. Real estate and some retirement accounts would be excluded. The tax could be paid in full in 2027 or over five years with interest. Ninety percent of the revenue—estimated at up to $100 billion—would fund healthcare programs, with the remainder going to food assistance and education .

Supporters, including the Service Employees International Union-United Healthcare Workers West, argue the tax is necessary to offset federal funding cuts to Medi-Cal and other safety-net programs. Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Ro Khanna have endorsed it. "The federal cuts are closing hospitals and threatening people's lives," said one union leader .

Opponents, including Governor Gavin Newsom, warn the tax would drive wealthy entrepreneurs out of state, damaging California's economy and reducing future income tax revenue. High-income earners pay roughly half of the state's personal income taxes, making their departure a significant fiscal risk . Critics also note the measure's retroactive application to January 1, 2026 raises constitutional questions that could lead to extended legal battles .

The poll also found that two countermeasures backed by opponents—Propositions 41 and 42—are similarly short of majority support. Proposition 41, which would bar new state taxes that fall outside a state spending limit, had 37 percent support. Proposition 42, which would prohibit new taxes on personal property including retirement accounts, had 43 percent support . If either countermeasure passes with more votes than Proposition 40, the billionaire tax would be voided .

The measure's fate remains uncertain. Another recent poll by the Public Policy Institute of California found 52 percent support, within the margin of error . The difference between the two polls reflects the fluidity of a race that has drawn enormous spending and national attention. For California voters, the question is not only whether billionaires should pay more, but whether a state acting alone can tax wealth that is always free to move.

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Sources: The Mercury News, New York Post, CalMatters, Washington Examiner, KALW