Latvian intelligence says it has indications that Russia is preparing possible military provocations against the Baltic states or Poland. The warning emphasizes that this is not expected to be a conventional war, because Russia is described as not ready for that “right now,” but instead a set of hybrid actions—potentially including missiles, drones, or other measures meant to send a political and military signal to NATO.

The intelligence’s immediate concern is not only the prospect of these actions, but the risk that Russian President Vladimir Putin could miscalculate. Officials argue that Russia’s internal institutions may be providing Putin only favorable assessments, increasing the chance of “reckless and senseless decisions.”

The comments were made in the context of broader European and NATO-aligned concerns about Russia’s campaign of hybrid activity on the alliance’s eastern flank. Earlier reporting by Polish officials described Russia’s approach as already ongoing and including measures such as cyberattacks and operations targeting critical infrastructure, alongside other tools such as influence and security pressures.

Latvian intelligence also stated that, at present, it does not see an imminent threat of a full-scale invasion of Latvia, focusing instead on the near-term danger posed by provocations and hybrid attacks.