Russia has increased pressure on Belarus to play a larger role in the war against Ukraine, according to reporting that cites the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and other officials. The Kremlin’s reported goals include using Belarusian territory more actively for strikes into Ukraine, including launching drones from Belarus, and potentially opening or expanding a new front that would force Ukrainian forces to divert troops toward the Belarusian border and adjacent areas.

ISW’s assessment holds that Minsk is resisting full involvement while still working to preserve Russian support. The reporting points to indications that Belarus has tried to avoid more direct military participation since 2022, including refusing to allow Russian forces to deploy Belarusian armed forces for combat and not conducting large-scale conscription into the Russian army.

The dispute is also reflected in developments along the Belarus–Ukraine border. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said relay/transmission equipment used to help guide Russian drones in or from Belarus was shut down, and gave Minsk a deadline to remove the remaining systems or face Ukrainian action to do so.

Behind the pressure is reportedly a mix of military leverage and political-economic coercion: the Kremlin is described as using threats to reduce or suspend financial support to Minsk as a way to compel deeper cooperation.