Marine Le Pen is awaiting an appeal verdict that could determine whether the far-right National Rally leader is barred from running for France’s presidency.

At the first trial, Le Pen was sentenced to two years in prison (to be served at home with an electronic tag) but, more importantly for the presidential race, the court also ordered five years of ineligibility from public office. That ineligibility was declared immediately effective rather than suspended pending appeal, meaning she was not just facing punishment in the long run—she could be prevented from standing in the next election.

In the appeal, Le Pen’s lawyers argued for acquittal, while the state advocate sought a revised prison sentence but again pushed for the key ineligibility period: five years. What happens after the appeal will likely hinge on whether the court keeps, reduces, or otherwise modifies that ineligibility term.

If the appeal court confirms five years of ineligibility, Le Pen would be effectively out of the presidential race. If she were acquitted, she would be eligible to run. But legal observers say a partial or intermediate outcome is also possible—for example, a shorter ineligibility period. Even then, other details could still complicate her campaign, including whether any prison-related measures such as an electronic tag would also apply.

Because the legal system includes further possible steps after the appeal, including higher courts, the outcome remains a mix of strict legal triggers and timing considerations tied to the election calendar. The verdict is therefore described as a “moment of destiny,” with much at stake for whether Le Pen herself—rather than her party’s candidate—faces the electorate.