As of May 25, 2026, crude oil prices fell beneath $100 a barrel for the first time since the start of the recent conflict, closing at $98.27 for Brent crude and $91.63 for West Texas Intermediate (WTI). This decline is attributed to rising expectations that the US and Iran are nearing an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial passage for global oil transport.

Reports indicate that both sides are making progress in negotiations, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stating that a deal could potentially be announced soon. President Donald Trump confirmed that discussions were moving forward in an "orderly and constructive manner." However, he also cautioned negotiators not to rush into any agreements.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has had significant implications for oil markets, as it is responsible for about 20% of global seaborne oil trade. The current easing of tensions has prompted a resurgence in tanker traffic, which previously faced severe restrictions amid the ongoing armed conflict.

Analysts highlight that while optimism is currently high, any final arrangement will need to address concerns over Iran's nuclear ambitions and include provisions to ensure the stability of maritime navigation through the strait. Reports from Iranian media suggest an agreement might lead to nearly full restoration of tanker traffic within 30 days.

The renewed hopes for peace have positively influenced stock markets, with notable gains across Asia and Europe. Nonetheless, experts warn that sustained price increases tied to the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may continue to affect global inflation rates and economic forecasts, particularly as the summer season approaches.

As negotiations progress, both oil prices and stock markets remain closely tied to developments regarding US-Iran relations and the stability of the Middle East region.