As of June 1, 2026, Australia's far-right populist party, One Nation, has achieved a significant milestone by surpassing the ruling Labor party in a national opinion poll for the first time. Conducted by the Redbridge Group and Accent Research between May 25 and May 28, this poll reveals that One Nation's primary support increased by four percentage points to 31%, while the Labor party's support fell to 28%, a decline of three points.

This shift in voter sentiment comes in the wake of the Australian government's May 12 budget, which introduced the most extensive changes to property taxes in decades aimed at addressing intergenerational equity. However, these measures appear to have failed to resonate with the electorate. The poll indicates that 26% of Millennials and only 13% of Gen-Z voters believe the budget will benefit them, highlighting a disconnect between government intentions and public perception.

In contrast, the conservative coalition opposition saw its support decrease by two points to 20%. The ongoing economic challenges, including rising living costs and inflation, have allowed One Nation to gain traction as it taps into voter anxieties about these issues and expresses strong anti-immigration sentiments.

Although Labor remains ahead of One Nation with a two-party-preferred basis of 51% to 49%, the poll's results illustrate a notable shift in Australia's political landscape. Since its inception in 1997, One Nation, led by Pauline Hanson, has historically held a minor role in the parliament. However, the party's recent successes signal a possible fragmentation within traditional political support structures.

In a by-election contest for the rural NSW seat of Farrer, One Nation's candidate David Farley received 39% of the vote, leading to speculation about their growing influence and the changing dynamics within Australian politics.